Thursday, April 22, 2010

Taliban are three distinct groupings...

Dear Aziz,

You are correct in their limited world view. A critical point with the Taliban is their lack of desire to be a global entity. Their focus is on Afghanistan. I look at the Taliban as three distinct groupings, each with a different approach to the insurgency, goals if you will.

Mullah Omar's Taliban - the first and original group. Omar was adamant about not using suicide bombers and targeting civilians. I am afraid he lost that argument, first to Mullah Dadullah Lang, then to others. You are right of course on their strict view of the world, as well as the consequences of their Sharia Law courts. They still wish to keep things as of old, no schooling for girls, the Imam the principal person in the village, all as you so clearly stated. No kites, no music, all men must have bushy beards, no photos or drawings of people, and no sorcery. Worldwide, even social conservatives were horrified by punitive laws that made prisoners out of Afghan women.

Jaluladdin Haqqani - settle old scores from the past. As a former Warlord, and a direct enemy to Pacha Khan Zadren, he targets the Paktika, Paktya, Khost Provinces, as well as the City of Kabul. His primary aim is to destroy the current government, remove those with whom he is feuding and regain some sort of leadership post. All types of attacks are fair for his group. His sons, especially Siraj continue his fight. A great deal of his activities are Badal - from Pashtunwali.

Hekmatyar - the most dangerous and evil one. He would be an angry fundamentalist dressed in black, throwing acid in the faces of unveiled women and assassinating local tribal leaders that might rival his power. He would unfeelingly sacrifice peasants for his cause, rocket the helpless civilians mixed in with his enemies, and his ruthless ambition would prevent the creation of a new peace. He is all of these things. As the most educated of the group, the HIG is also the most dangerous. They are willing to sacrifice anyone for their ambition, and have done so.

As to the brutality exhibited by the Taliban, I always wonder how much, when taken in conjunction with the other insurgencies in the area (as you mention) this is the result of training by the Pakistan ISI. I am not sure, but as you note there seems to be a great deal of similarities. Thus I think the base training is all from the same manual. Which also explains its presence in places such as the Philippines....Abu Sayyef Group, named for the Afghan Warlord, trained in the region.

As to the future. I feel the biggest obstacle for Afghanistan is the lack of infrastructure, primarily electrical power. I also think the Taliban knows this, thus their preoccupation with the Kajaki Dam. With electrical power, life can continue after the sun sets, schools don't have to close for the winter months, life would improve drastically. The next step is an irrigation and flood control program. Distributing the run off from the snow melting in the mountains, providing it to farmers to increase their crop yield all enable the Afghan to improve their quality of life.

I will finish at this point, I am enjoying the discussion and look forward to you insight.

Rob

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